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WP 6 - SafePASS Risk Modelling Tool as the backbone of Emergency Response Decision Support System

Maritime emergency response and ship evacuation are complex, multi-variable problems and any effort towards improving the current performance level requires an approach that will be capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the associated parameters. In that light, the Maritime Safety Research Centre of the University of Strathclyde is developing a Risk Modelling Tool (RMT), that will form the backbone of a Decision Support System (DSS), which will assess the emergency state from Alarm to Search and Rescue.

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The SafePASS RMT is comprised by a series of influence diagrams corresponding to distinct states of the event sequence shown above. Each influence diagram describes the network of critical parameters that impact each stage of the emergency state and evacuation/abandonment process and is based on contemporary research results and an extensive analysis of serious passenger ship accidents. The structure and elements of the influence diagrams, together with input from on-board sensors and other SafePASS systems and devices, will allow for the quantification of risk in real-time.

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One novel output of this approach is the coupling of the Available Time to Evacuate (ATE), depending on the emergency state (i.e. flooding or fire) propagation data and simulations, with the Estimated Time to Evacuate (ETE), based on real-time passenger distribution information and crowd dynamic simulations. This, overarching dynamic risk modelling analysis, allows for the calculation of the risk of ship loss and of the potential fatalities at each stage, hence providing the decision makers with vital insight on the potential consequences based on real-time data.

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The goal of the RMT is to provide the decision makers with useful, up-to-date risk metrics, based on the unfolding emergency state, that could assist their mitigation efforts and performance. Over the next months, MSRC will be leading the work for the completion of this SafePASS component, making sure, amongst other things, that the visualisation of the results will be in accordance with the socio-technical and ergonomic related suggestions and needs of the end users. A few preliminary illustrations of how the outputs of the RMT could be displayed can be seen below.

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