SafePASS risk model
Deliverable Information Table
This document is a report (R) on the statistical analysis of the SafePASS Database (D6.2) and SafePASS risk model for passenger evacuation (Mustering, Abandonment, Survival at Sea and Search & Rescue) in extreme flooding, fire & explosion scenarios. It contains results of an analysis of the essential information regarding historical data of large passenger ships collected from various accident data sources. The database analysis serves as an up-to-date investigation on the frequency of grounding, collision and fire & explosion accidents on large passenger ships (Cruise and RoPaX) over the past 20 years. It provides useful insight on parameters such as the natural light, weather conditions, damage location and extend which will direct the research on Risk Control Options (D6.5). More importantly, though, the analysis is a step closer in an effort to quantify the risk and calculate potential fatalities on various stages of the mustering, abandonment and search and rescue. The influence diagrams of fatalities during the aforementioned stages of the evacuation process are presented, detailing the most important of the parameters affecting the successful completion of each stage. Finally, the structure of a new risk model has been developed and presented in the form of an event tree. The sequential event nodes of the tree have been designed to act as input gates where the distribution of probabilities of any upcoming path is determined by the parameters presented in the influence diagrams.